Impacts of climate change are being felt around the world, as extreme weather events become more frequent, unpredictable and difficult to manage. Scenes from the catastrophic flooding of entire cities in Brazil and Dubai just in the last month, sent a disquieting message that even infrastructurally advanced cities will not be spared the most scathing impacts of climate change. The scorching heatwaves in India also made headlines recently, with some parts of New Delhi crossing record high temperatures of 52.9°C. With every unfolding climate disaster, the lack of preparedness of countries stands out, increasingly justifying the urgent need for attention to climate adaptation. 

What is adaptation in the context of climate change?
Climate change adaptation refers to the adjustments made to communities, ecosystems or institutions at local, regional or national levels, to reduce their vulnerability to the effects of climate change.  Countries party to the UNFCCC (the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), recognised adaptation as an important response or strategy alongside mitigating GHG emissions. This was because of the shared understanding that, despite countries’ efforts to reduce emissions, proven effects of climate change (e.g. sea level rise, desertification) were already being experienced in some parts of the world, particularly in the small island states and least developed countries in the global south. Therefore, countries committed to implementing adaptation measures to cope with the effects of climate risks that are already materializing, or are expected to materialize in the future, as complementary to their climate mitigation efforts.

The formulation of an adaptation strategy or response has two components– first, to assess the vulnerabilities of a social, ecological, or economic system to the impacts of climate hazards, and second, to identify measures that will strengthen the abilities of these systems to withstand adverse impacts, and to take advantage of opportunities arising from these changes, where possible. A thorough assessment of risks and vulnerabilities is a crucial first step to developing effective adaptation responses. This involves assessing the exposure of a system to physical climate hazards such as, extreme rainfall, intense heat waves, tropical cyclones etc., and its propensity to be adversely impacted by these events. 

The complexity of assessing climate vulnerabilities
Due to the complicated nature of climate change, risks to human and ecological systems do not occur in a linear or unidimensional manner. They interact directly and indirectly, resulting in the amplification of existing risks or the creation of new ones. The  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is the scientific advisory body on climate change, recognised three major types of risk interactions in the context of climate change- a) a compounding risk- when one risk exacerbates another risk (e.g. intense heat waves exacerbate the rate of precipitation)  b) a cascading risk- where impacts of one risk become sources of other risks to the wider system (e.g. warming temperatures drive sea-level rise which results in loss of coastal ecosystems, settlements and livelihoods), and c) complex or aggregate risks, where separate risks combine to have a greater aggregate impact (e.g. storm surges combine with heavy rainfall to produce a higher aggregate risk of flooding). 

In addition to risks arising from a combination of extreme or slow-onset climate hazards, there are also risks that emerge from interactions between climate events and human activity, due to the intertwined nature of human and ecological systems. Intrusive and disruptive developmental practices in fragile ecosystems are increasingly seen to combine with climate events to result in devastating impacts. Examples of this can already be found in many parts of the world. The clearing of mangrove forests  for coastal development compounds the risk of coastal erosion, a threat widely faced in coastal areas and small island countries around the world. Unsustainable urban planning involving river diversions or constructions in floodplains, can increase risk of landslides, floods and water contamination in low-lying areas and have irreversible knock-on effects in the form of biodiversity and species loss. Similarly, pre-existing social or economic factors such as health or low income can aggravate the impacts of climate change. Therefore, vulnerability assessments should account not only for risks from physical climate hazards, but also the dependencies that exist between the natural and social ecosystems that may amplify climate risks. 

However, most risk assessment frameworks used by national, regional, or local administrators today, assess environmental and social impacts separately. This results in an incomplete understanding of vulnerabilities, ending in ineffective planning or response measures that might even be maladaptive at times. Maladaptation is a situation where an adaptation measure that was meant to reduce vulnerabilities, inadvertently ends up enhancing
them or creating new ones. Instances of this can be seen in the context of a) infrastructural adaptation solutions such as hard sea walls or embankments that shift vulnerabilities by intensifying downstream coastal erosion, b) misguided incentives such as insuring monoculture farming that results in crop failure due to droughts and a diminished soil quality or c) short-sighted government policies such as providing welfare cash handouts to farmers
instead of distributing drought resistant seeds that result in food insecurity and migration. 

What should adaptation planning entail?
The complexity of climate impacts will only continue to rise in the future due to compounding vulnerabilities. With some parts of the world becoming uninhabitable due to extreme weather events, other parts will experience an unprecedented resource crisis as they struggle to absorb displaced populations. The imminent urban migration crisis triggered by coastal evacuations due to sea-level rise will impose immense pressures on the national and
local administrations in many countries in the world. 

Recent studies have shown that the cost of delayed action or inaction to climate change will likely exceed the cost of action by the trillions. Witnessing the immense costs of losses and damages due to extreme climate events every year, it is clear that investing in robust adaptation planning is in the best interest of countries around the world. 

Countries should adopt interdisciplinary risk assessment frameworks to understand vulnerability patterns shaped by a complex interplay of physical climate stimuli and local socio-economic and ecological factors. These assessments should feed into the identification of priority sectors and opportunities for adaptation at the local, state and national levels, and thereby inform the framing of adaptation policies and actions targeting these priority areas. These policies should include an iterative review process to periodically evaluate the results of adaptation and ensure that any negative or maladaptive effects are remediated and eliminated for future cycles. The stages of vulnerability assessment and review must involve a consultation of affected communities at the local level.

In 2023, countries signatory to the Paris Agreement adopted the Global Goal on Adaptation at the 28th annual conference of parties (COP) in Dubai.  Under this goal, countries agreed that by 2030 they will have “conducted up-to-date assessments of climate hazards, climate change impacts and exposure to risks and vulnerabilities and used the outcomes of these assessments to inform their formulation of national adaptation plans, policy instruments and planning processes and/or strategies.” This decision signals a crucial impetus for governments with vulnerable populations, to take stock of their current adaptation assessment and planning approaches and develop revised policies that are backed by institutional and financial support for implementation at various levels. 

As we navigate an uncertain climate future, fostering resilience through meaningful and inclusive adaptation planning remains one of the most crucial responsibilities of governments around the world.